Week of July 5-9, 2010

EURUSD’s broad outlook remains unchanged as prices have reached 1.1876 on June7, 2010, a few pips below our 1.1881 target. A monthly open and close above 1.3124 will complete the fall from 1.5143 while the June 7,2010 low of 1.1876 holds. As to the medium term fall from the January 2010 high of 1.4579, this wave remains active as ONLY a weekly open and close above 1.2909 will complete this fall while 1.1876 holds as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.2909-1.3546 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Nearterm, prices have reached our sited corrective target of 1.2579 as the fall from the April 12, 2010 high of 1.3591 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.2569 will complete this fall at 1.1876, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.2569-1.2998 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. However, once prices have moved within the sited consolidation zone, a sustained break outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the corrective rise from 1.1876, this rise continues to unfold as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.2330 will complete this rise while the July 2, 2010 high of 1.2610 caps, as a daily close below 1.2330 while 1.2610 caps will see further downside extension towards 1.2156. As to the downside risk, a daily close below 1.2049 while 1.2610 caps will confirm that prices will continue to move lower towards 1.1876, as a monthly close be