Week of January 31, 2010

EURUSD’s broad outlook remains corrective as the rise from the April 22, 2009 low of 1.2885 is complete at the Nov 25, 2009 high of 1.5143, as prices have now moved within the previously sited 1.3748-1.4260 consolidation zone. Risk remains for further price extension to the downside next targeting 1.3748 before another attempt to the upside. ONLY a daily open and close above 1.4353 will complete this fall from 1.5143 while today’s 1.3862 low holds. Now that prices have moved within the 1.3748-1.4260 consolidation zone, a sustained break outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.

As to the medium term outlook, the fall from the January 13, 2010 high of 1.4579 remains active with further downside risk targeting 1.3748. ONLY a daily open close above 1.4136 will complete this fall while today’s 1.3862 low holds as prices then contine to move higher within a 1.4136-1.4305 consolidation zone before another attempt to downside.

Intraday, the fall from the January 25, 2010 high of 1.4195 remains active with prices reaching 1.3862 as of this writing. Look for continued downside risk as ONLY a 2 hour open and close above 1.3989 will complete this fall while today’s 1.3862 low holds as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.3989-1.4067 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have moved within the sited consolidation zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.

Morte updates later.