Week of April 9, 2009

EURUSD rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3248, while the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 caps, will complete this rise with prices then moving within a 1.2945-1.3248 consolidation zone before another attempt to  the upside.  As to the short term fall from Monday’s 1.3582 high, prices have reached 1.3147 but have not opened and closed below 1.3248 on a daily basis. A daily close above 1.3313 will complete the short trem fall from 1.3582 while yesterday’s 1.3147 low holds, as prices will then continue move higher within a 1.3313-1.3416 zone. For the session ahead, risk appears to be for further price extension to the upside with 1.3313 and 1.3365 as the next objectives.

GBPUSD rise from March 30, 2009 low of 1.4110 has reached 1.4957 and remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.4633 will complete this rise with prices then continuing to move lower within a 1.4434-1.4633 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. For the session ahead, For the session ahead, look for a 4 hour close below 1.4633 to extend prices lower towards 1.4432, while a 4 hour close above 1.4757 confirming further upside risk. As to the broad outlook, the trend remains firmly to the downside while below 1.5475.