Week of March 19, 2009

EURUSD ‘s daily close on Wednesday of 1.3487 was the highest daily close since January 8, 2009 and has moved the pair within the previously sited 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone. However, prices will need to close today above 1.3319 to complete the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 at 1.2455, but to firm the upside risk will now need to close today above 1.3487. So, a daily close today above 1.3487 will see prices continue to move higher towards 1.3854 before another attempt to the downside. Now that prices have moved within the 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone, a daily close outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.  As to the short term rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455, this rise remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3121 will complete this rise while yesterday’s 1.3533 high holds, as prices will then move within a 1.2867-1.3121 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Regarding the intraday rise from yesterday’s 1.2986 low, this rise remains active as only a 2 hour open and close below 1.3324 will complete this rise while 1.3533 holds, as prices will then continue to move lower within a 1.3195-1.3324 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. For the session ahead, look to buy EURUSD ahead of 1.3324 for 1.3899 target.

GBPUSD’s corrective fall from the February 9, 2009 high of 1.4984 appears to be complete at the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653, as a daily open and close today above 1.4161 will complete this fall with prices then continuing to move higher within a 1.4161-1.4476 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. However, to firm the upside potential, prices will need to close today above 1.4281 to favor further price extension targeting the daily 55 EMA currently at 1.4406 as of this writing.  As to the short term rise from the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653, this rise remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.4073 will complete this rise while yesterday’s 1.4333 high holds. For the session ahead, a 2 hour open and close above 1.4303 will see further upside price extension  with 1.4406 as the objective.

We will have a detailed market outlook for EURUSD, GBPUSD, DJIA and Gold  after Friday’s close.