Week of March 12, 2009

EURUSD’s short term fall from the February 23, 2009 high of 1.2990 is complete at the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455, as prices reached 1.2871 during today’s Asian session, just 5 pips shy of our 1.2876 target sited in our March 10, 2009 update.  The short term corrective rise from yesterday’s 1.2616 low remains active as only a 1 hour open and close below 1.2774 will complete this rise while 1.2871 holds, as prices will then continue to move lower within a 1.2774-1.2713 intraday consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside.  However, once prices have closed within the intraday consolidation zone, any sustained break outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the medium term fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718, this wave remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3319 will complete this fall while the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have moved within the above mentioned consolidation zone, any sustained break of the 1.3319-1.3854 zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.  For the session ahead, look bids ahead of 1.2744 to limit any nearterm move to the downside with a 1 hour open and close above 1.2807 favoring further price extension to the upside targeting 1.2990, while a 1 hour open and close below 1.2713 will see prices continuing to move lower with 1.2671 followed by 1.2640 as the initial downside targets.

More updates later. RW