EURUSD, GBPUSD and SPOT GOLD 2012 Forecast

EURUSD’s fall from the 2011 high of 1.4939 remains active as ONLY a monthly open and higher close above 1.3652 will complete the fall from 1.4939 while the 2011 low of 1.2857 holds.  Look for 1.3652-1.3898 zone to limit the upside with further downside extension in the weeks ahead targeting 1.2599 and the 2010 low of 1.1876.  However, a sustained move above 1.3898 will turn the outlook to neutral with price consolidation within a 1.2000-1.5000 range  into the months ahead.   For 2012, look for a monthly open and lower close below 1.1876 to witness dramatic downside risk with the the 2005 low of 1.1642 as the initial target followed by 1.1153, 1.0705, 1.0344 and 0.9982 into the months ahead.

GBPUSD’s reached a high of 1.6745 in 2011, a few pips above my 1.6721 2011 forecast.  For 2012, risk is to the downside while 1.6100 limits any upside. Look for a monthly open and lower close below 1.5270 to favor further downside extension targeting 1.4859, 1.4226, 1.3632, 1.3263, 1.2966 into the months ahead while a monthly open and higher close above 1.6043 will witness further rise initially targeting 1.6828 in the weeks ahead.

Spot Gold- For 2011, spot gold was the only asset class that I had called a buy recommendation.  My 2011 forecast was to buy Spot Gold within the 1,294-1,326 zone for a 1,904 upside target. The 2011 low was 1,308 and the 2011 high was 1,920.  Now, for early 2012,  look for continued downside risk initially to 1,447 while 1,721 limits any upside attempts. A weekly open and lower close below 1,447  will favor further downside extension targeting the 2011 low of 1,308. However, should month prices open below 1,300 and close lower, then risk will be for further decline to 1,154. It is with this level that I would look to establish long term positions, as below 1,154 would see significant unwinding of long term positions.  For  2012, look to buy spot gold within the 1,154-1,308 zone for 1,729, 1920, 2101 and 2,213 upside target.