EURUSD Outlook for the Week of March 27-April 1, 2011

EURUSD’s hourly rise from the March 16, 2011 low of 1.3868 is complete at the March 22, 2011 high of 1.4248 as prices have sustained below 1.4102 with further downside risk likely to follow targeting 1.4012 while 1.4120-1.4140 caps.  As to the medium term rise from the February 14, 2011 low of 1.3427, this wave remains active as only a daily open and close below 1.3934 will complete this rise while the March 22, 2011 high of 1.4248 holds.

As to the broad outlook, the rise from the 2011 low of 1.2873 remains active as ONLY a  daily open and close below 1.3723 will complete this rise at the March 22, 2011 high of 1.4248 with a sustained break of 1.3723 favoring further downside extension towards 1.3630.

For the week ahead, look for a daily close above 1.4216 to confirm further rise is once again underway with 1.4248, 1.4294, and 1.4368 as the initial upside targets while to the downside a daily close below 1.4012  favors further downside extension targeting 1.3934, 1.3866,  and 1.3630 in the days ahead.