EURUSD Outlook for the Week of June 27-July 1, 2011

EURUSD’S broad outlook continues to witness narrowing range with lower highs 1.4939 , 1.4695 and 1.4441 and higher lows 1.3969 and 1.4072 .  This consolidation pattern whereby sellers are selling lower and buyers are buying higher will eventually witness one side overwhelming the other for either an upside or downside break.   As to the upside outlook for a daily open and higher close above 1.4695 to favor further rise targeting 1.4842 and 1.4939 initially while to the downside, look for a daily open and lower close below 1.4141 to favor further downside initially targeting 1.3969 and 1.3797.   Daily studies  favor the downside with the 200 day MA at 1.3863 as the near term target.  For the week ahead, look for a daily open and lower close below 1.4072 to confirm further downside extension is underway targeting 1.3969, 1.3863, and 1.3784 while daily prices remain below 1.4310.