Week of July 29, 2009

EURUSD’s short term rise from the July 8, 2009 low of 1.3832 is complete at yesterday’s 1.4304 high as prices have moved within the 1.4012-1.4124 consolidation zone.  Now that prices have moved within the mentioned short term consolidation zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break with 1.3933 as the initial downside target while 1.4186 as the initial upside target. As to the broad outlook, no change as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3783 will complete the rise from the April 22, 2009 low of 1.2885 at 1.4338. As to the intraday fall from yesterday’s 1.4304 high, this corrective wave remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.4120 will complete this fall while yesterday’s 1.4007 low holds. A daily close today below 1.3937 will suggest further downside risk in the days ahead with 1.3783 as the objective. For the session ahead, attempt small shorts at 1.4120 with stop loss above 1.4156 for 1.3783 target.

GBPUSD remains bid with 1.7516 as our long term objective while prices remain above 1.5846, as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.5846 will complete the rise from the April 22, 2009 low of 1.4396 at 1.6743. Intraday prices are moving higher as the corrective fall from this weeks 1.6555 high is complete at yesterday’s 1.6337 low  and have moved within the 1.6420-1.6472 intraday consolidation zone. Look for a sustained break of this zone to see further price extension in the direction of the break with downside target of 1.6350 and initial upside target of 1.6508. For the session ahead, sell GBPUSD at 1.6472 with stop reverse above 1.6508.

More Updates later.

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