Week of June 15, 2009

EURUSD’s rise from the April 22, 2009 low of 1.2885 remains active as only a daily open an close below 1.3783 will complete this rise while the June 3, 2009 high of 1.4338 holds. Once prices have opened and closed below 1.3783, risk increases for further price extension to the downside within a 1.3440-1.3783 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Aditionally, the 20 day moving average comes in at 1.4003 at this writing as prices have not closed below the 20 day MA since April 24, 2009 and the daily chart is setting up for a potential sell confirmation possibly at today’s close. For the session ahead, look to sell EURUSD at 1.3947 with stop loss above 1.4003 for 1.3805 initial target.

GBPUSD’s short term rise from the June 8, 2009 low of 1.5801 remians active as only a daily open an close below 1.6307 will complete this rise at the June 11, 2009 high of 1.6620 with prices then continuing to move lower within a 1.6114-1.6307 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside.  As to the medium term rise from the April 22, 2009 low of 1.4396, this wave remains active as only a daily open an close below 1.5796 will complete this rise with prices then moving lower within a 1.5262-1.5796 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside.