Week of March 27, 2009

EURUSD’s short term corrective rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3248 will complete this rise while the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 holds.  As to yesterday’s intraday fall from 1.3640, this wave is now complete at yesterday’s 1.3493 low with prices currently trading within the 1.3549-1.3584 intraday consolidation zone. A sustained break of this intraday consolidation zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. Regardng the medium term outlook, the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 is complete at the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 as prices have moved within the sited 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone.  A daily open and close outside this medium term consolidation zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break with 1.4234 as the upside target while 1.3021 represents the downside target.

GBPUSD’s short term corrective rise from the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.4347 will complete this rise with prices then continuing to move lower within a 1.4082-1.4347 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to yesterday’s intraday fall from 1.4636, this wave remains active as only a 4 hour open and close above 1.4504 will complete this intraday fall while yesteday’s 1.4422 low holds, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.4504-1.4554 intraday consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.

We will have a detailed outlook after today’s close as to next week’s outlook.