Week of March 17, 2009

EURUSD’s short term corrective rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 remains active as only a daily close below 1.2835 will complete this rise while 1.3070 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.2690-1.2835 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside.  However, once prices have closed within the above mentioned zone, any sustained break outside the 1.2690-1.2835 consolidation zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. Regarding the medium term outlook, the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3319 will complete this fall while 1.2455 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. As to the long term outlook, the rise frim the October 2000 low of 0.8227 is complete at the July 2008 high of 1.6037, as prices have susutained within the 1.1210-1.3054 consolidation zone, with a monthly open and close outside this zone witnessing further price extension in the direction of the break.  Nearterm, look for prices to continue to move higher while 1.2690 holds with 1.3110 followed by 1.3328 as the next objective.

GBPUSD intraday rise from the March 15, 2009 low of 1.3890 is complete at yesterday’s 1.4228 high, as prices have sustained within the 1.4019-1.4099 consolidation zone with yesterday’s close, as a daily close outside this zone witnessing further price extension in the direction of the break.  As to the short term fall from the February 9, 2009 high of 1.4984, this fall remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.4161 will complete this fall at the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653, as prices will then move within the 1.4161-1.4476 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. However, once prices close within the 1.4161-1.4476 zone, a daily open and close outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.  Regarding the medium term fall from the September 25, 2008 high of 1.8666, this fall remains active as ONLY monthly open and close above 1.5475 will complete this fall while the January 2009 low of 1.3502 holds, as prices will then move within the 1.5475-1.6693 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. However, once prices have closed within the above mentioned zone, and sustained break outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.

XAUUSD medium rise from the September 2008 low of 680.92, this rise remains active as ONLY a monthly open and close below 881.73 will complete this rise while the February 19, 2009 high of 1005.86 holds, as prices will then move within a 757.61-881.73 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Once prices open and close within this zone, a sustained close outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.

DJIA has seen prices continue to move higher as was our March 10th forecast with daily prices current moving  within the 7147-7612 consolidation zone. A daily open and close outside this zone will see furthet price extension in the direction of the break.  As to the long term outlook, the fall from the all time 14,165 high remains active as ONLY a monthly open and close above 9,408 will complete this fall while the recent 6469 low holds.  So, nearterm, look for a daily open and close above 7612 to confirm further upside price extension while a daily open and close below 7147 will see continue to move lower.

More updates later. RW