Week of March 3, 2009

EURUSD short term wave from the February 25, 2009 high at 1.2898 remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.2675 will complete this fall while yesterday’s 1.2537 low holds, as prices will then move within a 1.2675-1.2760 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have entered the above mentioned zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the long term outlook, no change here as only a weekly open and close above 1.3355 will complete the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 while the February 18, 2009 low of 1.2512 holds.

More updates later.  RW