Week of March 8-13 EURUSD Outlook

EURUSD (1.0840)

EURUSD moved lower last week  reaching a low of 1.0837,  just 11 pips shy of our 1.0826 forecast low.   We will seek opportunity early this week to establish medium term short position for the move to 1.0327  followed by 0.8563 target.  Below parity (1.000) will likely witness a rapid and dramatic fall in the EURUSD, much in the same manner as that which occurred in Sept 2002 when EURUSD broke above parity for the second time in 2002.    For the week ahead we expect prices to fall early as a daily open and lower close below 1.0749 will witness continued decline in the days ahead to 1.0327.  As to the upside,  only a monthly open and higher close above 1.2415 will turn the medium term outlook to neutral.